Before we get into describing and passing on the information about the drought conditions that have been prevailing and worsening in the semi arid and arid regions of the Thar it would be not out of place to keep in mind certain broad characteristics. These apply to the drought conditions in Marusthali, the stalking ground of famines and more particularly to the drought cycle that had it’s onset in the beginnings of the summer of 1998. These are important to keep at the back of the mind especially while planning for the drought mitigation and long term proofing in the Indian Thar.
1. Droughts in the Thar are prolonged, gradually intensifying nightmares, like a chronic wasting disease that doesn’t get over but only slowly worsens. They are a creeping phenomenon, making an accurate prediction of either their onset or end a difficult task
2. Drought severity too is difficult to determine. It is dependent not only on the duration, intensity and geographical extent but also on the demands made by human activities and by the natural resource base of the region.
3. The last two decades have seen a weakening of the institutions of the State in responding to drought and commissioning timely and realistic drought relief programs. Droughts have become more prone to political manipulations and rhetoric for populism.
Meteorological Drought
To most observers here in the Thar the drought conditions seem to have started with a delay ( and a failure) of the rains after April 1998. Rainfall records from locations like Jayal, Sujangarh, Devikot, Kolayat, Haddan, Chimmana, Nokha, Lunkaransar and Pugal since April 1998 indicate the complete failure or perceptibly low rainfall than is considered ‘normal’ for these regions. Another interesting thing which emerges from a trend analysis of the rainfall records from these different micro locations is that there was a spell of excessive rains around October’98 that damaged the winter crops. In the month of July’99 rainfall was reported in villages in Lunkaransar, Kolayat, Sujangarh, Haddan, Chimmana, Pugal Nokha, Devikot area in Jaisalmer and parts of Nagore. The high hopes these initial rains of July and the illusion of a good monsoon they raised was followed by a period of lull and there have been no rains in the past three months.
But what is critical to remember here is that meteorological drought has just played a triggering role to precipitate the crisis that had been influenced by non climatic factors like economic, social or political developments. For instance one of the causes of the present pervasive societal vulnerability is the result of the decreasing resilence of the Thari society and resource base to cope with the drought conditions.
Drinking Water
The criticality of this need doesn’t need to be stressed in area that is anyway characterized by acute water scarcity. The failure of rains in July-Aug’99 has increased the pressure
on the ponds in the settlements. There is a severe competition between the humans as well as livestock for drinking water from the same source. Families in many villages in the project areas would not be able to pull the coming months without an emergency water supply.Crop production & Family Diets
The initial rains of July’99 had prompted farmers to go all out for sowing their fields that they had not been able to do for now a year. The expectations of a good crop tempted many of them to sow costly seeds like gowar at the cost of large amounts of advances from the bania / middlemen in the towns. Since last two months all such expectations of even an average crop are over. More than sixty to seventy percent of the kharif crops like bajra, moong, moth in Bikaner, Nagore, Barmer and Jodhpur district has been damaged. Even the crops in the irrigated areas of IGNP have suffered. In and around the Rajasar Cluster and Pugal area the crops of cotton, narma, groundnut, gowar have not developed properly.
The decline in crop production and reduction of the net sown area has had it’s own effects on nutrition and family diets. In the largely subsistence based agriculture in large tracts of the arid Thar family diets constitute matiras, kakadi, phali, keria that grow along the crops and act as a buffer to buying food from the market. Not only traditional diet ingredients are not available even fodder grasses like dechab is not to be seen. Needless to say the major onslaught is on the most vulnerable targets - children between the age grp of 0-6 yrs and pregnant & lactating mothers.
Prices of Essential Commodities
Prices of essential commodities have been increasing consistently since last year and a half. They are of course related to several other factors. The drought conditions and increased dependence of people on the market for
not only their own rations but also for fodder has raised consumption expenditures in the context of declining incomes and increased scarcity.Fodder
The regeneration of the natural grasslands in the first spell of rains in July have been gradually decimating over the last three four months. Fodder prices have been consistently rising having gone up three to four times as high than they were three months back. The rates for tudi (fodder from wheat) that usually sells at Rs60-80 per quintal at the time of harvesting is difficult to get these days at Rs150-200. The fodder market is going to become more aggressive and exploitative in the coming months. The demand for opening fodder depots is one of the most pressing demands in the Panchayat and District meetings.
Livestock
Steep rise in cattle mortality and numbers of stray cattle surely are signs of the intensifying drought conditions. But the precision of numbers cited should only be accepted with caution in the absence of a reliable system of monitoring livestock mortality in the normal times. What can be definitely vocuhed for is the gradual intensification and increase in the number of cattle deaths and stray cattle in these last three months. More than forty thousand cattle deaths have been reported from URMUL project areas in the Thar. Perceptions of elders rank this drought as even more grave and fatal for livestock especially cattle than the previous droughts of V.S. 2025 (1969), one of the severest droughts of this century.
Distress sales of small ruminants has been picking up. Since last two months it is quite common to encounter trucks packed with sheep and goats on the highways. This destocking strategy has been resorted to by thousands of semi nomadic pastoralists from villages of Kolayat, Bap, Phalodi and villages in Jaisalmer and Barmer district. Most of this traffic is bound to Punjab and Delhi. The distress sales have dropped the prices of the livestock by more than half. Sheep and goat that usually sell at a price of Rs2000-2500 now have to disposed off at Rs600-800. The price of milch animals has also declined by more than half.
Milk yields from the cattle has been dropping. The daily procurement of URMUL dairy that collects milk from more than 38000 cattle keepers in 526 village cooperatives has reduced from 1lakh 28 thousand litres per day in July to only 85 thousand litres per day in September.
Human & Livestock Migration
Seasonal mobility of communities as well as livestock is a well established and organic rhythm of life in the Thar. The regular seasonal transhumance (that began after Holi) of lakhs of families and their herds / flocks has been prolonged. Many have not come back or have got stuck on the way back from the neighbouring States of Punjab, Harayana, MP. Drought has made the migration more prolonged and uncertain. The process of inter region migrations, that are desperate attempts to find fodder and water, has intensified in the last three months. For instance truck loads of sheep and goat and cattle were dumped in villages around Devikot by families from Barmer. Thousands of cattle have been sent to the scared cattle pen of Bhadariya Maharaj near Pokaran.
The migration of families from the villages of Sujangarh and Jayal tehsils in search of employment opportunities has intensified. Many families are reported to have come back from older and familiar places of employment because of the massive influx of families from other places. The employment opportunities in agricultural fields, brick kilns and construction sites have saturated and are no longer available. In Nokha number of people seeking employment from the neighboring villages has increased manifold. Even the cities and towns like Bikaner, Makrana are unable to absorb the massive exodus of families who are pouring into the city almost daily.
Popular Coping Strategies
From the standpoint of human strategy one of the well understood and popular tactics is to try and outwait the drought. It is a disquieting situation to see farmers being driven off their land, pastoralists incessantly on the move and marginal classes migrate to escape starvation. One of the conviction that has pulled communities since the failure of rains in April’98 has been that the rains, will, indeed, come back. Meanwhile the coping s
trategy of the sangathans members has been to wait, economize, defer decisions, watch with growing anxiety the grain banks and the fodder stock. So abilities to outwait a drought depend on who and where we are, and how long it lasts.Govt Response / Relief Works
The Govt response to the creeping drought that has now reached it’s high peaks has to be understood in the context of the volatile political situation in the State. Since 1998 despite several declarations of commissioning relief works the District bureaucracies and the Panchayat bodies have not been able to initiate any sustained efforts at relief works. The State has carried out a reassessment of the severity of the drought third time in these two years. Many of these employment generation relief works seek to cover not more than 10 to 15 percent of the lakhs of families that have been affected.
(A Note By AZERC, URMUL Trust for discussion with donors agencies, September 1999)
Photo Credits: Vikram Channa
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